Financial Reset Wipeout!🚨 Deutsche Bank Collapse Could Crash Global Financial Markets 2020 - financialanalysis

Breaking

Popular Posts

Thursday, December 19, 2019

Financial Reset Wipeout!🚨 Deutsche Bank Collapse Could Crash Global Financial Markets 2020



Germany's economic indicators at every level are contracting. And with Merkel disguising a massive tax increase as a political cave to ascending Greens party, the future for Germany’s economic growth looks dreadful. Germany’s economy at the purchasing manager’s level is contracting. While the german Exports are shrinking For The First Time Since the 2008 Financial Crisis. And it's not just the German economy. The demographic crunch is putting significant financial and manpower strains on all western economies worldwide. And with each passing day, it is getting even worse. Brexit and the New UK - USA trade deal will add more poison to the EU economy. Add in China and Trump's goal of killing off the EU bureaucrats reign will be fact. Italy and Germany jump ship next. France will be left naked as the EU tide goes out. In future years the EU is awaited to continue falling further behind in many areas. Politico reports that Washington is preparing to announce tariffs on billions of goods from the European Union. This follows a decision by the WTO, which has just ruled in favor of the US in a case against Airbus. This ends a multi-year transatlantic dispute between the world's two largest aircraft manufacturers over whether Airbus had benefited from illegal state subsidies. Unfortunately, for both America and the EU, the Chinese state-owned aviation manufacturer Commercial Aircraft Corp of China (COMAC) has been busy developing the C919, which is seen as China's answer to the Boeing 737 and Airbus 320. Germany is in big trouble and with it the whole European Project. Welcome to The Atlantis Report. The Germans, just like China, thought they could export for all eternity while protecting their home market, so they never bothered to develop a balanced internal market. Ask China how that’s working out for them. The European Union has entered a Klown Krazy World of economics. The Euro fostered a binge of German exports. And North european banks lending, to the non-credit-worthy mediterranean countries ; which suddenly could borrow at near German interest rates. The PIIGS ( Portugal; Italy; Ireland; Greece and Spain ) went on spending sprees, which were misinterpreted as economic growth and prosperity. Then their credit limits were reached, and they could not pay the minimum monthly payment. Lenders refused to continue to advance funds. Their economies crashed, and the ECB and IMF moved in to save the French and German banks that had lent far too much, saddling the PIIGS with more unpayable debts named as "bailouts." The lending banks were saved from the consequences of their silly lending practices, but the PIIGS were left in an economic depression. Youth unemployment in Spain, for example, is nearly 50% - a sign of a sick, unproductive economy. Two hundred fifty thousand youths have left Italy in the last ten years in search of jobs. Unemployed people are a net drag on a country's economy, and there is significant "opportunity cost" loss from unemployment. Under the ECB/Euro system, trade and financial flow imbalances between Euro member countries are soaked up by the "Target 2" balances. Germany now has nearly a Trillion Euro positive Target 2 balance, while the PIIGS have negative balances. France teeters on the brink of a negative balance. Germany's large Target 2 positive balance is the net amount that Germany has incurred in financing its exports to other EU countries. Whether Italy can ever pay its 400 Billion, Euro Target 2 negative balance is doubtful. But Italy is quite happy to accept Germany's self-financed exports. Whether and how much of its substantial positive balance Germany will collect is not clear. This "economic plan" is merely expanding credit to maintain a lifestyle that one cannot afford. The amount of debt already incurred exceeds the ability to pay, and the ECB has responded by money printing and negative interest rates. Without negative interest rates, the whole Euro scheme would quickly fall apart. But negative interest rates are a symptom of an economy and a banking system which are seriously off the rails. If the interest rate is a measure of the value of money, then a negative interest rate is a sign that the Euro is losing value fast. A similar phenomenon of credit expansion misinterpreted as economic health has played out in the USA. Now, it is becoming clear that the US governments and taxpayers are unlikely ever to pay off their debts, let alone keep up interest payments. The central bank response has been to drive interest rates to zero and flood the economy with liquidity via QE to keep the Ponzi scheme alive. Meanwhile, governments in Euroland have distracted the public with Green initiatives and renewable energy generation. Which have been successful only in driving electricity prices through the roof in Germany. And extending their "cradle to grave" social benefits systems to cover unemployable immigrants from the 3rd world has made their governments' budgetary problems ever more acute. Meanwhile, banks, insurance companies, and pension plans are being gutted by negative interest rates. The financial entities have more and more adopted the appearance of casinos, with Deutsche Bank carrying Trillions in open bets known as derivatives. Derivatives blew apart AIG in 2008, and the US government and Fed were forced to "Tarp" it over to save the Wall Street system. But insurance companies and pension plans have had no such bailouts. Public pension plans in the USA are now severely underfunded, and governments are desperately increasing taxes to make up shortfalls. Tax burdens in Illinois, New York, New Jersey, and California, for example, are so high that people are moving elsewhere. But Super Mario kicked the can down the road long enough to retire from his position, so he can retire with his pension. Now, Fi-Fi Lagarde takes over as ECB boss, after her triumphant resurrecting of the Argentinian economy. All will be well. Put your savings in the bank and watch them disappear. "And..., it is gone..." Germany is an industrial and an exporting powerhouse. And with the trends for those two things in deterioration for more than a year. The balance of trade for the last couple of quarters has been at absolute bottom since 2016. One cause is German brands repeating the same mistakes that the American brands did 20-30 years ago; by making their products in Mexico or Asia and only designing or assembling them in Germany; but still wanting full German prices so the executives can pocket the difference and sail off on their yacht in Monaco. Volkswagen has done a similar thing with their Mexican and Chattanooga plants. A German brand name sticky taped to a not-so-great third world import but at full German prices. Germany geared its economy for exports into a highly integrated global economy. The US and China were its biggest export markets . The US was already scraping the barrel with sub-prime auto loans, and there is nothing left after that. This desperate measure to maintain demand without increasing wages is rapidly failing. And the Euro has dropped by 13% since January of 2018. For the reason that so much of Germany’s exports are to other EU countries and they are all jam-packed with debt. Unfortunately, Berlin is pushing through a €53 billion tax increase, including a €1,000 CO2 tax per household per year. I am sure that will do wonders in revitalizing the economy. Moreover, a big miss to the German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in March was reiterated by April’s number, which was just as gruesome. The March 22nd release missed by above 3 points to get in at 44.7 versus expected outcome of 48.0 (Anything under 50 is deemed a contraction). Contraction happened (again shocking the market) in February. As a matter of fact, it’s been no more than misses, some of them similarly dreadful, since the start of last year. This is simply the most dramatic of falling German economic indicators. But it’s across the board. Germany is already on the road to recession. And it’s not just Germany anymore. The French PMI print was horrible, too, and the whole of the composite PMI for the Eurozone falters on shrinking. What everyone needs to be concerned about now is the turnaround against the enormous move into European sovereign debt. These bond yields have opposed gravity all year and cannot be stable against a falling euro. Manufacturing PMI print was the most terrible news Angela Merkel could have fancied, 41.4! A figure so horrific dogs will want to roll on it. Years ago, An open, globalized world seemed like such a good idea. Forty-year later. It’s China and Germany that have big trade surpluses. The US has a massive trade deficit. Europe runs a substantial trade deficit with China. Somehow, this is being balanced by the EU has a surplus with the US. Nevertheless, in many respects, an increasing trade deficit with China bodes poorly for the EU as they look down the road. I contend the problem the EU has going forward is that much of the EU is simply uncompetitive. This means unless the EU takes vigorous measures to stop the importation of cheap Chinese consumer goods, it will be flooded with them in the coming years. German and Europe's economy is only going to go downward. As they import the lazy and entitled masses of Africa and The Middle East, the squeezed tax-payers that pay for the welfare state of these new people will put a terrible strain on their economy. Add to it the social and criminal costs of increased police, surveillance, and prisons for the new unassimilated migrants. This will only go downhill for Europe. What Europe needs to do is cut all social Welfare, Stop all mass importation of people (especially whose cultures fail to assimilate to European values), adjust to a new economy of automation, default on all government pensions, establish free-market commerce, enforce borders and military. This is just to get started, there is plenty more regarding social Marxism indoctrination, and people regaining a sense of belonging, community, and religion. Besides the obvious, the big takeaway is uniformity overvalue this number. It’s an intelligent portrayal of affirmation bias. And you can see why this happens. The widespread view tells us that a reconciling central bank and the ECB’s negative interest rates are the acmes of accommodation, should support ongoing manufacturing growth because credit is inexpensive. But, it doesn’t if there’s no potential for the buyers of German merchandise to engage in more debt. Negative interest rates are expected to increase the current flow because nobody wants to lose money on their savings. The market signals that things suck and that the central bank has no trust in the economy. It should come as no surprise to whosoever that the ECB became conciliatory the minute they got the data that Germany’s economy was contracting. Because without Germany increasing exports there can be no support for a strong euro, without regard to the Brexit. And as the Remainiacs continue to wangle to hasten Brexit, their assertions look poor as it is clear to all that Europe needs the U.K. more than the U.K. needs Europe. But, hey, don’t let evidence stand in the way of some people’s religion. In effect, whenever they try to create a headline shift the blame on Brexit incertitude, it moreover emphasizes just how much it is they who are creating it by delaying the process. Dropping certainty in Europe and the Euro are what’s driving the current dynamic of stable U.S. asset prices. Our economic system, that is, our debt-based currency system, requires more debt and more revenue to fund the debt to keep the system going. This truism arrises because there are never enough Federal Reserve notes in circulation to pay off existing debt. It's not just Germany, South Korea, Japan, China, as a matter of fact, the whole world is slowing down. The reality is growth is finite; the world simply can't keep consuming more every year without reaching a limit. Our economic system presupposes constant growth, no growth, and it collapses. The massive debt levels brought on by using a debt-based currency are killing the EU. Germany is failing because, for years, they were walking a tightrope between what they produced and what they paid out. Before, it was just handouts to other European countries that had some growth. Now with high unemployment and loads of free immigrants, those countries are failing. Germany, with its influx of freeloading immigrants, can’t afford all of this - add on tariffs, and they are truly cooked. The US and its vassals are all crashing at the same time. The great depression is coming fast, and most of the western world still thinks that printing money would save them. Big slowdown coming. The recession is coming, and Poor old Germany will struggle more because they are used to being wealthier. Southern Europe is already intimately involved with the idea of a contracting economy - Germany just put it off a little longer. How can Germany still grow, when all its customers are shrinking or at best static? Perhaps someone will work out that endless restrictive practices, regulations, and directives actually hamper trade and commerce. Germany and Japan both better act soon. Both are essential in recession, and they can bring the globe down with them. Since the Chinese product is less expensive, China has always expanded more rapidly during a global recession when domestic production shuts down. Europe has to start understanding that the US is not their ally. The US only likes you if you do their dirty work for them. Iran Sanctions are a prime example. Europe agreed to honor the Iran Deal. One country, the USA reneged because Trump breaches contracts and agreements at will. That is why he has had six bankruptcies. Trump is the first in US history to reach an agreement entered into by a prior administration. It turns the US into an unreliable dealer. The German government ruined the car industry, the energy industry like Siemens, and employed more and more useless eaters in its Bureaucracy. Trump destroyed the global automakers from his aluminum and steel tariffs. This destroyed the US market. This has harmed the Chinese Market through VW is still doing very well in China. German luxury cars are under constant Threat by Trump, and US consumer of autos has crashed. Trump is sinking everyone. Europe should have joined with Russia and China to destroy the US Dollar Reserve and quit buying US Debt. Germany requires massive fiscal reform with lower individual and corporate taxes, dismantling the socialist state. Negative interest rates are not going to cure what ails Germany. Germany's woes began in the first world war, continued on through the second world war (the sum total of which destroyed the flower of future generations for decades to come) and have come to fruition as a result of allowing themselves to be overrun by savages. Germany and Japan remain emasculated nations being held hostage by a military bully and Trump a blowhard with no intellect at all. Germany and countries of the EU need to expand into Asian Markets and deal with Russia instead of coping as Poodles and cutting their own throats upholding idiotic US Sanctions on Russia and Iran. Germany and Japan will never have autonomy until they overthrow the US Standing Armies and NATO and trade instead with the world. Remember the 5G, which Trump is trying to block for all poodles, is essential for all significant future engineering and innovation. The entire E.U. is in a demographic tailspin/nightmare. You can't fix that with more loans, or an increase of a percentage point here or there. Everything according to plan. They are destroying the remaining democracies in order to build the new globalized feudalistic system, where the financial aristocracy and neocons have absolute power and a large pool of dumbed-down, apolitical, slave laborers at their disposal. Merkel does a marvelous job. The EU economic downturn has been and still is mainly self-inflicted by policy stupidity. The EU is led by a subsidized and occupied Germany that has no sovereignty to lose anyway. The rotation of the Chinese economy into the next stage of their nation-building will see the quid pro quo of taking and give move into the giving less and making more phases. Germany is already Dead Economy Walking.Deutsche Bank Collapse Could Crash Global Financial Markets
German financial services giant Deutsche Bank AG is one of the largest and most important economic institutions in the world. Mainly due to self-imposed scandals, the bank is now having to take drastic measures to stay afloat. Investors everywhere should note that if such a critical piece of the too-big-to-fail banking system falters, it could trigger another global financial crisis.Deutsche Bank Struggles to Survive
Deutsche Bank AG, the largest banking services group in Germany with well over a trillion dollars worth of assets, has been a major source of concern for international investors, economists and policy makers for more than a couple of years now. In fact, the International Monetary Fund called the bank in 2016 “the most important net contributor to systemic risks” to the global financial system. That same year, various financial publications around the world also started warning that Deutsche might be the “next Lehman Brothers,” referring to the investment bank whose collapse is considered to be a major part of starting the 2008 global financial crisis.

Now the German bank appears to be struggling again, with some commentators fearing it will not be able to survive. Just this month it was announced that Deutsche will undergo a major reorganization in order to stop the bleeding. As was widely reported, the restructuring process of the company will include downsizing about a fifth of its employees around the world, approximately 18,000-20,000 people. Additionally it was revealed that Deutsche will cut its investment in information technology by over a billion dollars per year, a move that will hinder it from catching up with competitors or being able to face new challengers in the fintech domain. Moreover, there are also reports in the market that some institutional investment funds are pulling out their assets from the bank, which might signal a lack of trust in the success of the reorganization efforts.

Costly Scandals and Billions in Fines
Before we ponder how the situation might unfold, let’s review how Deutsche Bank got to its current state. Over the last few years it has been involved in a number of scandals such as facilitating money laundering which cost the bank a fortune in legal expenses, reputational damage and massive fines. Its stock is now trading at a 30-year low, having lost over 70% in value since 2007. The bank also suffered frequent changes at the top because of this, replacing CEOs and other top executives at an alarming rate for a company of its kind in its industry. In November 2018, its headquarters were even raided by law enforcement officers and representatives of the German tax authority.The myriad of legal troubles it’s faced have cost Deutsche Bank an incredible amount of money in the last few years. For example, in April 2015 it had to agree to pay a combined $2.5 billion in fines to American and British authorities for its involvement in the Libor scandal, where several banks were accused of colluding to fix interest rates widely used around the world. And in January 2017, Deutsche reached a $7.2 billion settlement with the U.S. Justice Department over its sale and pooling of toxic mortgage securities. In total, Deutsche Bank has paid more than $13 billion for litigation since 2012.

What Happens When Too-Big-to-Fail Fails?
So what will happen if Deutsche Bank does not succeed with its reorganization efforts and can no longer survive on its own? If it was operating in an economy governed by real free market principles, the bank would just go out of business the same way other companies do all the time. However, it is more than possible that politicians and bureaucrats will feel a need to intervene to prevent that from happening.

Bodies such as the German government and the European Central Bank (ECB) can say that the failure of the largest commercial banking institution in the economic heart of Europe would have disastrous ramifications for the continent and the world as a lack of investor trust will send an economic shockwave from Germany outward. For this reason they may claim to have no choice but to rescue Deutsche Bank with other people’s money. This can be done by several ways, including forcing other banks to buy out Deutsche (there were attempts to merge it with Commerzbank AG in the past), printing more fiat money and giving it away to Deutsche or even outright nationalizing the bank.Whatever the case may be, it will have lasting implications on the global economy. Besides the knock-on effect on other financial institutions, a collapse of Deutsche Bank, as well as a rescue of it with European citizens’ money, could create serious political fallback. As we have seen with the last global crisis financial, disillusioned voters might feel that those in power are sacrificing their savings in order to help rich bankers from too-big-to-fail institutions, fueling a drift to populism in extreme right and left parties, further destabilizing the established order.

A new financial crisis triggered by a collapse of Deutsche Bank can also drive more people to discover cryptocurrency as an alternative to fiat, as the faults of the old system become obvious to understand. A costly and unfair rescue of the failing system will also have such an effect, evoking the Times headline “Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks” from January 3, 2009, enshrined by Satoshi Nakamoto in the Bitcoin genesis block for a reason.

What do you think about the current state of Deutsche Bank and the likelihood of its possible collapse to crash the global financial markets again? Share your thoughts in the comments section below.

No comments:

Post a Comment